Probabilistic Lifetime Assessment of Marine Reinforced Concrete with Steel Corrosion and Cover Cracking

Abstract：In order to study the durability behavior of marine reinforced concrete structure suffering from chloride attack, the structural service life is assumed to be divided into three critical stages, which can be characterized by steel corrosion and cover cracking. For each stage, a calculated model used to predict the lifetime is developed. Based on the definition of durability limit state, a probabilistic lifetime model and its time-dependent reliability analytical method are proposed considering the random natures of influencing factors. Then, the probabilistic lifetime prediction models are applied to a bridge pier located in the Hangzhou Bay with Monte Carlo simulation. It is found that the time to corrosion initiation to follows a lognonnal distribution, while that the time from corrosion initiation to cover cracking t and the time for crack to develop from hairline crack to a limit crack width t can be described by Weibull distributions. With the permitted failure probability of 5.0%, it is also observed that the structural durability lifetime mainly depends on the durability life to and that the percentage of participation of tbe life t to the total service life grows from 61.5% to 83.6% when the cover thickness increases from 40 mm to 80 mm. Therefore, for any part of the marine RC bridge, the lifetime predictions and maintenance efforts should also be directed toward controlling the stage of corrosion initiation induced by chloride ion. 作者： Author： LU Chun-hua[1]  JIN Wei-liang[2]  LIU Rong-gui[3] 作者單位： Institute of Structural Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;Department of Civil Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, ChinaInstitute of Structural Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, ChinaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China 期 刊： 中國海洋工程(英文版)   ISTICEISCI Journal： CHINA OCEAN ENGINEERING 年，卷(期)： 2011, 25(2) 分類號： U657 Keywords： marine reinforced concrete    chloride ingress    steel corrosion    cover cracking    probabilistic lifetime    機標分類號： O34 TG1 機標關鍵詞： reinforced concrete structure    service life    lifetime prediction    failure probability    analytical method    the Hangzhou Bay    reliability    Monte Carlo    maintenance    limit state    crack width    bridge pier    stage    model    Weibull    develop    total    three    study    order 基金項目： The paper was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China

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